@prismatic https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5-4/

@prismatic https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5-4/

@traders The following models have been added:
- GPT-5.4-Pro (clarified GPT-5.4 option)

- Kimi K3

- Deepseek V4 full (renamed original option to V4-Lite since that's what the rumors are mainly about)

- Opus 4.7

- Sonnet 4.7

- Grok 4.20 (out of beta)
- GPT-5.3-Thinking
- GPT-5.3-Pro

@prismatic would you consider letting users add answers? if not I want to add "GPT-5.4 Pro"

@Bayesian Added; regarding letting users add answers prbly not because I don't want every iteration of gpt-5.4 listed out. Trying to keep it somewhat analogous to the markets created Manifold account before.

Kimi K3, Deepseek V4 full (V4-lite doesn't count), Opus 4.7, Sonnet 4.7, Sonnet 5, Grok 4.20 (out of beta)

(feel free to only add the ones you find interesting)

@prismatic valid!

@Bayesian Added most of them, sonnet 5 is already an option

@prismatic https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/models/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview

@prismatic https://openai.com/index/gpt-5-3-instant/

@prismatic why does this count when Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite didn't? Wdym by "clear delineation"? Do you mean that they've previously been released separately?

@PlasmaPower https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/february-2026-ai-releases#f7ixllwlfrf
See discussion on previous markets regarding 5.3. This was a carryover for any 5.3 option from last month. Related markets are also resolving on 5.3-Instant: https://manifold.markets/Jack1/gpt-53-released-by

I would like to have separate options out for all models, but there are just too many options (especially with the GPT-5.x family), and it doesn't make sense to add them all. Regarding clear delineation, most companies have pretty clearly established categories of models. For Gemini, it would be Deep Think, Pro, Flash, Flash-Lite. For Anthropic, it would be Opus, Sonnet, Haiku, etc. These are clean model tiers, hence different model names, hence different options on this market. OpenAI used to have a sort of similar structure with GPT-5.2, 5.2 Mini, and 5.2 Nano, but idk what happened to that (https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/models).

I agree with Gemini Flash Lite, I could have made this clearer (+ AI clarifications didn't help) and refunded accordingly, but this will stand for GPT-5.3-Instant.

@PlasmaPower I've added 5.3-Thinking and 5.3-Pro as options since openai said they will "follow soon." Feel free to trade on them and if you think there are other clarifications to be made.

@prismatic Would this count a Flash-Lite?

@JoshSnider no. I've edited the AI description a bit because it may have misled some traders on this

Can you add Haiku 4.6?

@Robincvgr done

Adding more NO on GPT-5.4. The Codex PR leaks are real — two separate PRs referenced gpt-5.4, both scrubbed with force pushes. But GPT-5.3 general-purpose has not shipped yet (only Codex variants). OpenAI cadence is 4-6 weeks between major releases. Shipping both GPT-5.3 GP and GPT-5.4 in March requires unprecedented acceleration. Leak confirms the model exists internally; it does not confirm imminent release. Estimate: 20%.

Adding more NO on GPT-5.4. The Codex PR leaks are real — two separate PRs referenced gpt-5.4, both scrubbed with force pushes. But GPT-5.3 general-purpose hasn't shipped yet (only Codex variants). OpenAI's cadence is 4-6 weeks between major releases. Shipping both GPT-5.3 GP and GPT-5.4 in March requires unprecedented acceleration. Leak confirms the model exists internally; it doesn't confirm imminent release. Estimate: 20%.

@prismatic

@prismatic Could you clarify if GPT-5.4-Codex would count for GPT-5.4 on this market?

@PlasmaPower yes it would

@prismatic this applies to deepseek v4-lite as well

@prismatic I made 3.1 Flash YES orders because you said this.

You bet against me and then added 3.1 Flash Lite, crashing the price of regular 3.1 Flash. I don't think that was fair.

@adonisds yeah this was a mistake on my part for trusting the AI clarifications. I'll refund you 500 mana from your second limit order that I mainly filled. In general, though, ask for clarifications in the future!

I also removed the AI clarifications and made it more clear in the resolution criteria

@adonisds @prismatic just sent me 500 mana immediately. Thank you!

I consider this fully resolved.