If "Sinners" wins Best Actor, will it win Best Picture?
34
Ṁ10kṀ13kMar 15
27%
chance
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This is a conditional market.
If Michael B. Jordan does not win Best Actor (for "Sinners"), this market will resolve N/A.
If Michael B. Jordan wins Best Actor and "Sinners" wins Best Picture, this market resolves YES.
If Michael B. Jordan wins Best Actor and "Sinners" does not win Best Picture, this market resolves NO.
This market may close before the ceremony to preserve liquidity.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Michael B Jordan won the Actor Award last night and his Oscar chances went from 10.5% to 36% and the Sinners best picture chances went from 7.5% to 13%, so with a little algebra we can determine that the implied conditional probability is 27%.
I'm not sure this is consistent with some of the other markets, though (such as the most oscars market).
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