Resolution criteria
Each answer resolves YES or NO independently based on whether the specified event occurs before April 1, 2026 (UTC). Resolution sources:
Israel and Iran go to war again: Confirmed by major news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC) reporting direct military conflict between the two nations.
US ground troops enter Iran: Confirmed by US Department of Defense or major news outlets reporting deployment of ground forces into Iranian territory. This includes Special Forces.
Iran strikes Israel: Confirmed by Israeli government statements or major news outlets reporting Iranian missile/drone attacks on Israeli territory.
Iran strikes US bases: Confirmed by US military or major news outlets reporting Iranian attacks on US military installations.
Iran strikes US bases and kills at least one American: Confirmed by US military casualty reports or major news outlets.
The US launches airstrikes on three different days: Confirmed by US Department of Defense statements or major news outlets reporting US airstrikes on Iran on at least three separate calendar days.
Significant protests are reported in February and March: Confirmed by major news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera) reporting substantial anti-government demonstrations in both months.
Ayatollah Khamenei is removed from power: Confirmed by Iranian government statements or major news outlets reporting his removal, death, or incapacity.
The rial loses 1/3 the value it had on January 1, 2026 (unofficially/on the black market): Resolved using black market exchange rates from sources like Bonbast or AlanChand. On January 1, 2026, the rate was approximately 1.4 million rials per USD. This resolves YES if the rate reaches 2.1 million rials per USD or higher.
The Strait of Hormuz is mined: Confirmed by US military, international maritime authorities, or major news outlets reporting confirmed mine placement in the Strait.
Background
Iran begins 2026 with extensive protests sparked by its weak economy. The demonstrations began Dec. 28 over the collapse of the Iranian rial currency, which trades at over 1.4 million to $1, as the country's economy is squeezed by international sanctions in part levied over its nuclear program. The Iran–Israel war (13 June – 24 June 2025), also known as the Twelve-Day War, was an armed conflict in the Middle East. The war began when Israel bombed military and nuclear facilities in Iran in a surprise attack, assassinating prominent military leaders, nuclear scientists, and politicians. On 5 January 2026, the Israeli Security Cabinet held a five-hour meeting and authorized additional strikes on Iran, following Netanyahu/Trump discussions and statements made the week before. In January 2026, the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said that Israel will not allow Iran to re-establish its missile or nuclear programmes. President Trump has said that while the US remains open to a deal with Iran, if Iran begins to re-establish its nuclear programmes, "we're going to have to knock them down".
Considerations
The IRGC reportedly conducted a missile and air defense exercise on January 4 in multiple cities, including Tehran and Shiraz, which suggests that Iran is increasingly concerned about a renewed conflict with Israel after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington. The rial lost nearly half its value against the dollar in 2025. The Iranian regime has sustained its nationwide internet shutdown, likely to disrupt protest coordination and obscure the scale of its crackdown. Reports indicate that Iran's internet connectivity has remained at approximately one percent of normal levels since 3:00 PM ET on January 8.
Update 2026-01-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For "US ground troops enter Iran": Special forces deployments count as ground troops entering Iran for resolution purposes.
Update 2026-01-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For "The rial loses 1/3 the value it had on January 1, 2026": The rial only needs to fall to 2.1 million rials per USD (or higher) at any point between January 1 and April 1, 2026. If this threshold was already reached before this market was created, this option will resolve N/A. Multiple sources will be averaged when determining the exchange rate value.
Update 2026-02-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For "The Strait of Hormuz is mined or otherwise closed": A partial closure does not count. The entire strait must be closed (even for a short time) for this to resolve YES.
Update 2026-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For "The Strait of Hormuz is mined or otherwise closed": Resolution will be based on media coverage and whether the press is reporting it as closed, rather than solely on actual enforcement or complete cessation of all traffic.
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@SaviorofPlant Apparently this is being disputed. https://x.com/faytuksnetwork/status/2027824084264861743
@SaviorofPlant Iran is saying it https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/02/28/3527976/hormuz-strait-closed-to-all-vessels
Do we need them to actually do something?
@JoshSnider As of now ships are still passing through, although I’ve seen a few turn around. https://x.com/theintelfrog/status/2027886734382354561
@ChadCotty traffic seems massively reduced compared to normal based on ship maps. i think this is a weird edge case where they're saying it's closed but some brave seafarers are calling their bluff
it's not clear iran can actually enforce a hormuz closure with the current chaos, but i'll probably wait a little longer before actually going to the trouble of having a mod re-open it. the language in the description relies on media coverage so i'll defer to the press on whether they're saying it's closed or not
@SaviorofPlant @mods Please reopen "The Strait of Hormuz is mined or otherwise closed", it was resolved too early by mistake
@SaviorofPlant ok given that a mod just forcibly resolved this market to YES, I guess this is staying closed
@SaviorofPlant https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran–United_States_war good enough for me (Israel is listed as a belligerent and this is clearly a war based on the volume of attacks)
@SaviorofPlant This should be resolved YES.
@FecalAbhuman didn't fully close, so it does not count. I guess as the answer is written though, a similar closure that closes the entire strait for even a short time would cause a YES resolution
@SaviorofPlant for this option, the rial just needs to fall to this value at any point between jan 1 and apr 1 (unless it already happened before this market was created, in which case it will N/A since this option wouldn't be predictive). i will try to average multiple sources on its value if possible