what happened to 1 launch a month... cmon spacex

@Blomfilter Obviously that never applied to a new version of Starship.

Also it was '1 every 3 to 4 weeks'
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1927531406017601915
"Launch cadence for next 3 flights will be faster, at approximately 1 every 3 to 4 weeks."

That was when they were expecting 3 more v2 launches before a gap before v3 launch at end of 2025. One ship blew up so there were only 2 launches with flights 10 and 11 caused a long delay with damage at Masseys and work arounds at pad, then a booster destroyed itself. So a delay of only ~4 months might be considered rather fast.

@Blomfilter What happened to the plans to colonize Mars? Surely the first manned missions returning from the city on Mars back to Earth will arrive soon, right?

In other words: why would you even remotely believe anything that Musk ever promises?

@FlorisvanDoorn
What happened to electric vehicles?
Oh, only the world's best selling car model for last 2 consecutive years
What happened to landing falcon 9 boosters?
Oh, 500+ of those.
Catching wolrds largest, heavier than air, flying object with chopsticks
Done that.
Some timelines can be rather aggressive but remotely believing what he says will eventually happen seems a better prior than just disbelieving him. (Yes it isn't a perfect prior but better than Musk disbelief.)

@ChristopherRandles
Sure, some of Musk's companies have done some impressive things.

That said, even on electric vehicles I'd be very happy to bet against almost any Musk prediction:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk

I'm surprised that that page doesn't say anything about the Tesla Roadster, unveiled Nov 2017, that would be available in 2020. Let's see if he will be off by more or less than a factor of 3.

I don't disagree that many things that he promises will eventually happen. Often not within double the predicted time frame though. I'm happy to amend my statement to "why would you even remotely believe any timeline that Musk ever promises?"

About the rocket catch: sure that's impressive. But is it a lot more impressive/practical than the space shuttle landings, which happened as early as 1981?

@ChristopherRandles Want to make a market that Musk's claims on Dwarkesh's podcasts about the quantity of AI datacenters in space will turn out to be true? I'm happy to bet that he is off by at least a factor of 10 in power usage of orbiting datacenters or by many years (or both).

@FlorisvanDoorn That's a good idea for a market. I would create one except I'm not sure how to get reliable data for the total energy consumption of such datacenter.

Like, for instance, imagine we had market for the total power consumption of the Starlink constellation. It's easy enough to estimate the ballpark, but getting any kind of official data even within a factor of 2x is challenging.

@OlegEterevsky @FlorisvanDoorn

https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-space-be-the-cheapest-place-to

Will space be the cheapest place to put AI by end of Feb 2029?
(possible AI resolution)

Without allowing any Elon time margin, unsurprisingly this has reduced to 4%. Maybe a set with end of 2029, 2030 2031 [optionally also 32 33 34] dates would be more interesting?

https://manifold.markets/jim/will-at-least-1-of-datacenter-capac
Will at least 1% of datacenter capacity be in space by EOY 2028?
seems less likely but slightly higher %.

Also
https://manifold.markets/JakobBrunker/space-datacenter-industry-generates
Space datacenter industry generates $100M+ annual revenue by December 31, 2029

Ship 39 finally rolls out for pressure and cryotests at Masseys.

Then there is roll back to add at least the engines, then to Masseys for static fire, some final preps, roll to pad to test out SQD systems, maybe a WDR, fit FTS, stack, fuel and launch. Oh and while that is going on also need to finish any work on pad2, finish adding engines to B19, roll B19 to pad, test out pad with booster (maybe a few weeks?), static fire the booster, a few final preps, install FTS. Probably more I haven't listed?

It is not happening by March 1st 🤣

Remove 2/15? And maybe soon extend the market expiration?

@AndrewMeyer Done. Thanks for noticing

Certainly not before 2026-1-1, maybe worth adding 15th March 2026 ?

@ChristopherRandles Good idea, done

@OlegEterevsky
Before 2025-12-01 can resolve thanks

"As soon as January"

Which answers are 2025 and which are 2026?

@robert Sorry, 2025 was obviously a typo except for December