This market estimates Cameco's 2030 realized uranium price.
The market settles on March 31, 2031 (3 months after year-end to allow for quarterly reporting). At settlement, an LLM will be asked to estimate Cameco's realized uranium price for 2030 using the trailing 15-month window excluding the last 3 months.
Measurement window: January 1, 2030 through December 31, 2030
Resolution:
YES if: 2030 realized uranium price ≥105 USD/lb
NO if: 2030 realized uranium price <105 USD/lb
Data source: LLM estimates the value from Cameco's public filings (quarterly earnings releases, MD&A, annual reports, financial statements). Calculate as total uranium revenue ÷ total uranium sales volume over the measurement period.
1,000The key datapoint is Cameco’s own 2030 sensitivity: at $160 spot, their modeled realized price is $104/lb. To justify a YES here you effectively have to believe either (a) the long-run contract book becomes materially more leveraged to very high prices than their current framework implies, or (b) uranium’s 2030 spot price regime is significantly higher than $160/lb; both are plausible in a severe supply crunch, but not the most likely scenario given utility resistance and Cameco’s risk-managed contracting.