MANIFOLD
Will the United States conduct a military strike against Cuba in 2026?
25
Ṁ1kṀ731
2027
41%
chance
16

This market resolves YES if, before Jan 1, 2027 at 00:00 Cuban local time., the United States conducts a confirmed kinetic strike on Cuban territory or military assets (air, land, naval), including but not limited to:

  • Manned aircraft bombing runs

  • Armed drone strikes

  • Cruise missile strikes (including those launched from naval vessels or submarines)

This market does NOT include:

  • Cyber operations

  • Sanctions or economic measures

  • Covert sabotage without widely reported confirmation

Resolution will be based on confirmation by the US government or at least two major international news organizations.

Market context
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During a White House event with Inter Miami, President Trump made notable remarks about Cuba, saying that once the current focus on Iran is resolved, developments regarding Cuba would be “just a question of time.” He also praised Marco Rubio and suggested Cuba could become a future policy focus. No specific actions or policies were announced, but the comments have drawn attention given ongoing speculation about potential US moves toward the Cuban government.
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This market is doing very well, thanks a lot you guys, I'll gradually add liquidity.
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