I'd like to bet this lower but I'm worried about a publicity stunt version where the unit economics aren't there but Musk pretends they are and a few cybercabs are sold right before the end of the of the year so they can claim success. Maybe your "nation-wide" criterion covers that? What's the threshold for counting as nation-wide?

Markets about Tesla can be insanely tricky to pin down. It's like Elon Musk is fucking with us.

@dreev Having watched the full MKBHD video, I think he's pretty clear what he's wagering his hair on: a cybercab with scissor doors, no steering wheel and no charge port (induction charging only), for $30k. He specifically mentions the regulatory hurdles of no steering wheel as well as keeping the cost down in spite of inflation, which implies that he's talking about actually selling this to consumers as a real working product. I don't think MKBHD is going to shave his head in response to a "stunt version" that's not actually available to end consumers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgm5uZaS3-E&t=470s

@JustKevin Ah, thanks for digging in on that! What if Tesla delivers a single cybercab to a single customer for exactly $30k who then uses it strictly on private roads -- or to exactly 50 such customers, one per state, or whatever it takes to technically eke out the headline they want?

That's kind of what happened with the so-called first autonomous delivery and to a lesser extent what may have happened with the Austin robotaxi launch. In that case we don't know if Tesla's cheating with remote supervision but so far the robotaxis seem to be less safe than humans (per NHTSA data). In any case, the total unsupervised robotaxi mileage is low enough that it's infuriatingly ambiguous whether Tesla has actually solved level 4 autonomy.

So I imagine that in this market as well, edge cases are possible. And maybe even likely, if Elon Musk is actually targeting those edge cases in order to obscure the fact that he's not able to deliver on the promises.

In theory the unit economics criterion works beautifully to distinguish the publicity stunt version but Tesla may not be transparent enough for us to assess that.

I'm not sure there's a good solution to this. If you set the bar high enough that there's no weaselly way to get to YES then you risk having to resolve NO despite YES being what's correct in spirit.

@dreev I agree that there are potential edge cases where people can argue about whether or not Tesla really delivered what was specified in the market criteria.

This was an off-hand, "I'll eat my hat" sort of comment. I think he probably really would shave his head in the very unlikely event Tesla actually delivers the promised car for $30k. But I also assume he doesn't want to be perceived as being duped by some marketing stunt and does not want to shave his head. No one can make him shave his head, and that's a hard criteria for this market.

@JustKevin Aha, yeah, I'm persuaded. I suppose it's possible that MKBHD is like, "this does not remotely count but I'm shaving my head since Tesla, by XYZ technicalities, pulled this off and do seem to be on track to pulling it off for real sooner than I expected at least, and I'd rather err on the side of not weaseling".

But probably for this market, that's just a risk that NO traders should factor in.

I think you've convinced me to go ahead and bet pretty hard on NO here. It would be great to hear @AshBhat's confirmation that we're thinking about this correctly.

PS: I guess the YES bettors should also get the clarification on what happens if, say, MKBHD admits he was wrong but finds way to get out of shaving his head. Like he makes some big donation in lieu of it, or gets a short haircut and calls that close enough. Ie, how much of a stickler will we be on the literal head-shaving part?

(I'm personally less worried about that clarification because I see it as overwhelmingly likely that MKBHD is correct.)

"Nationwide" probably isn't going to happen in some states due to permitting delays.

Even if April 2026 is the start of cybercab production as claimed, the ramp up will be slow so there won't be enough vehicles for a fully nationwide service so it seems likely some rural areas won't have a service.

Perhaps it is possible for it to roll out to like 50 cities by end of 2026 and supposing MKBHD accepts this is enough and shaves head will this resolve no due to lack of "nation wide service"? i.e. Do large rural areas not having robotaxi service with any model: 3 or Y or cybertruck let alone cybercab mean this question resolves no?