When will a single AI system demonstrate autonomous expert-level performance across 3+ fundamentally different domains? | Manifold

When will a single AI system demonstrate autonomous expert-level performance across 3+ fundamentally different domains?

9

Ṁ225Ṁ450

2041

January 27, 2032

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

11%

Before Oct 2026

18%

Before Apr 2027

28%

Before Oct 2027

38%

Before Apr 2028

46%

Before Oct 2028

48%

Before Dec 2029

56%

Before Dec 2032

76%

Before Dec 2035

84%

Before Dec 2039

Multi-Domain AGI: one model (same weights, no domain-specific fine-tuning) demonstrates autonomous expert-level performance in 3+ fundamentally different domains (e.g., software engineering, scientific research, legal/medical/financial professional services). Must complete substantive end-to-end professional tasks autonomously, not just answer questions. Each domain verified by independent expert panels in blinded evaluation. Exam-based domains require 90th percentile scores.

Full methodology: https://www.future-shock.ai/research/agi-predictions

Future Shock ensemble prediction: October 2027 (±6 months). Also submitted to Metaculus.

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