How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?
24
á¹€10ká¹€22kDec 31
78%
5 or more
58%
7 or more
24%
10 or more
13%
15 or more
5%
20 or more
Launch is defined as lifting off from the pad, even slightly, under the thrust of its own engines (the launch does not have to be successful)
Must be a full stack launch, but any Starship variant counts
Answers will resolve as they are fulfilled
I may resolve answers NO early if I'm exceedingly certain they aren't attainable
UTC is used for determining 2026 start/end
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Which months of 2026 will there be a Starship–Superheavy launch?
Will SpaceX's Starship have 40 successful launches before 2027?
1% chance
Number of Star Ship launches by 2030?
How many starships will be launched before 2030?
107
In what year will the number of Starship launches exceed the number of Falcon launches?
Will Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?
27% chance
Will Starship launch at least 24 times in 24 hours before the end of 2035?
16% chance
Will Starship launch one thousand times by 2040?
56% chance
How often will Starship have launched by the time of Falcon 9's retirement?
243
How many launches will there be before Starship is recovered (3-13)
99% chance