Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if any Chinese airline announces a firm order for at least 25 Boeing aircraft before May 1, 2026. The announcement must be made by the airline itself or officially confirmed by Boeing. Chinese airlines rarely publicly disclose their orders and often remain unidentified as customers until the delivery of the aircraft, so announcements may come from Boeing's official press releases or SEC filings. Resolution sources include Boeing's investor relations website (https://investors.boeing.com/investors/news/press-releases/) and major aviation news outlets covering official announcements.

Background

The US manufacturer has not been able to secure any orders with Chinese airlines since 2017. In April 2025, Chinese airlines were told not to place new orders with Boeing and directed to halt new Boeing orders amid rising U.S.-China trade tensions. However, Boeing is close to securing a deal to sell as many as 500 aircraft to China. Deliveries of Boeing aircraft to China had been suspended since April, but Boeing announced in late May that deliveries would resume in June following a temporary 90-day easing of tariffs agreed by both governments.

Considerations

The question hinges on whether Chinese airlines will formally announce new orders despite the government directive to halt purchases. In China, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) controls airlines' ability to take delivery of new aircraft, meaning any large order would require government approval. The reported 500-aircraft deal remains unannounced as of early 2026, and any announcement before May would need to clear both commercial and political hurdles.

This description was generated by AI.